If you’ve been anywhere near the AI market, you’ve probably seen BigBear.ai (BBAI) pop up—and not quietly, either. This small-cap AI and defense player has gotten back to a positive place in just a few months, and the numbers don’t lie. The stock has more than doubled so far in 2025. So what’s behind all the buzz?
1. They’re Landing Some Serious Contracts
BigBear.ai has been on a winning streak with U.S. government multimillion-dollar deals for projects with big-name agencies:
- Department of Defense – They’re working on the Virtual Anticipation Network (VANE), which is basically a next-level AI tool for predicting and planning in defense.
- Navy & Army – Multi-year contracts worth hundreds of millions to help modernize systems.
- FAA – $2.4B FAA IT modernization program.
These aren’t just flashy headlines—each one adds long-term revenue and credibility.
2. New CEO, Big Government Ties
In January, they brought in Kevin McAleenan, the former Acting U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, as CEO. This is the kind of guy who knows exactly how government contracts get signed—and has the contacts to make them happen. Investors love that.
3. Their AI Is Getting Smarter (and Broader)
BigBear.ai isn’t just about military AI anymore. They’ve expanded into facial recognition, computer vision, and supply chain intelligence thanks to their acquisition of Pangiam. Plus, they’ve teamed up with Palantir, a major player in the data and AI world.
4. The Numbers Are Looking Better
- Revenue Growth – Up 22% year-over-year in Q3 2024.
- Backlog – $385 million in booked business waiting to be fulfilled.
- Analyst Confidence – Firms like Cantor Fitzgerald have doubled their price targets after seeing the progress.
5. The Reality Check
Here’s the thing: they’re still unprofitable, they’ve issued more shares (dilution), and there’s always a risk that the backlog doesn’t turn into actual revenue as fast as hoped. This is still a volatile, high-risk stock.
BigBear.ai is having its moment thanks to big contracts, a well-connected CEO, and a smart expansion into new AI markets. It’s a high-upside, high-risk play—exactly the kind of story that gets traders excited and keeps long-term investors on their toes.
